The hottest future is uncertain. The semiconductor

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"The future is uncertain": the semiconductor industry has a huge market, but it still needs cold thinking

any product must experience the life cycle of innovation maturity standardization, and semiconductors are no exception. For any semiconductor product, technology is always a barrier. The process basically determines the performance level and performance power consumption ratio of the processor - of course, the semiconductor architecture design and optimization will also play a great role, but the improvement brought by the process is fundamental and decisive, which is difficult to achieve by any optimization

corresponding to the product life cycle, the development of the industry follows the transformation path of technology intensive capital intensive labor intensive. The stage of product innovation is characterized by technological monopoly and product differentiation, and the industry is technology intensive; In the mature stage, the technology is basically stable, and then the investment decreases, while the investment in capital and management elements increases, and the industry is capital intensive; Finally, when the products reach the standardization stage, cost control becomes the main constraint of competitiveness, and the industry is labor-intensive

the intensity of production factors in different stages of the industry has changed, which has changed the competitiveness of various countries and regions. In the innovation stage, innovative countries have obvious competitiveness because of their technological advantages; At the stage of maturity and standardization, innovative countries need to make use of the advantages of other countries in the field of capital and labor to ensure the competitiveness of products and explore new markets, thus giving birth to the driving force of industrial transfer

the development of the global semiconductor industry has mainly experienced two major industrial transfers, the first from the United States to Japan, and the second from the United States and Japan to South Korea and Taiwan. The outward transfer of the U.S. semiconductor industry can also be seen as the expansion of the semiconductor industry in the world. The industrial transfer has brought about the anti oversupply made by Japan and other countries in DRAM. However, the appearance of 8.8 electroplated parts in the United States should be irrefutable, and the center has begun to invest in a new round of technology development, which also means a new round. However, due to the addition of flame retardants, it is unable to manufacture regenerated fibers, and the cycle begins. The United States will focus on ASICs and MPUs that focus on design to ensure that new technologies continue to be in the leading position, promote industrial upgrading, and thus regain its hegemony

semiconductor manufacturing is transferred to China, and China's semiconductor industry is changing from labor-intensive to capital intensive: with the rise of emerging terminals in the electronic industry, the first benefit is the IC design link of the U.S. checkpoint (except for the first industrial transfer, because the industrial chain has not yet formed a clear division of labor, and the integration of design, manufacturing and packaging and testing), while the production capacity of the United States has always been a weakness, As a result, the driving force for the outward transfer of manufacturing and packaging and testing links has emerged, and other countries have welcomed the opportunity of the transfer of the semiconductor industry. The history of semiconductor industry changes is basically the deduction of this law

with April 2016 as the bottom of the production rhythm, the semiconductor market continued to expand rapidly. According to the world semiconductor trade statistics Organization (WSTS), the global sales of semiconductors in 2017 is expected to increase by 11.5% over the previous year, reaching US $377.8 billion. It is expected to increase by 2.7% in 2018, hitting a new high for three consecutive years. It is expected that the global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2017 will exceed the it foam of 2000 and reach a record high

although the demand may indeed increase, the semiconductor is still "uncertain". After 2000, there have been five upsurges. Some people believe that the expectation of IT technology will lead semiconductor manufacturers to monopolization and stabilize the market

but in fact, in nominal terms, the global sales of semiconductors have been hovering around $25billion from the middle of 2010 to the beginning of 2013, showing weak growth. Although the production is arranged according to the road map of demand expansion, the products using semiconductors are not popular and the market is in a downturn

many views believe that the semiconductor market will continue to expand in the medium and long term. However, the more optimistic market participants are, the easier it is to miss abnormal signals

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