Analysis of market situation in the first half of 2004 and forecast report for the second half of 2004
analysis of market situation in the first half of 2004 and forecast report for the second half of 2004
China Construction machinery information
Guide: the China Economic Times news of the China market situation dynamic analysis research group of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council: since the second quarter of 2004, the impact of macro-control on economic operation has gradually emerged, Some prominent contradictions have begun to be initially alleviated, and market expectations have changed to a certain extentAccording to the China economic times, since the second quarter of 2004, the impact of macro-control on economic operation has gradually emerged, some prominent contradictions have begun to be initially alleviated, market expectations have changed, and the market situation is in an important turning period
overall analysis of the market situation: the regulation effect is obvious, and the foundation is not firm.
1. The investment growth rate has fallen to close to the normal level, but the foundation for maintaining stable growth is not firm.
since the second quarter, with the obvious effect of macro-control policies, a prominent feature of the market operation is the sharp decline in investment growth. The monthly year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in cities and towns across the country was the highest, reaching 53%, and then fell back to 43%, 34.8%, 18.3% and 22.7% respectively. 5. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in June was much lower than that of the same period in 2003 (34.9% and 39.1%), which was basically the same as that of the same period in 2002 (25.1% and 18.4%). In the 23 years since, the average annual growth rate of fixed asset investment in China is 19.5% at current prices. However, since the fall in investment mainly depends on administrative measures, there are two obvious problems: first, the policy is lack of flexibility, and if it lasts too long, it is easy to cause great harm to normal investment and development; The second is "more symptoms and less root causes", less touching on the deep causes of investment inflation. Once the administrative means are relaxed, there is the possibility of rebound. At the same time, in the first half of the year, new projects and medium - and long-term bank loans increased significantly year-on-year, which also increased the possibility of investment rebound
2. The fact that the supply and demand of energy and transportation are still tight does not mean that further tightening measures need to be taken.
one of the most prominent problems in the current economic operation is that under the situation of obvious decline in the growth rate of investment and industrial production, the tension between supply and demand of energy and transportation has not been significantly alleviated, but has been further aggravated in some aspects. Analyzing the current tight supply and demand of energy transportation needs to consider two factors: first, the demand for energy transportation is mainly related to the growth rate and structure of industrial production, and there is objectively a certain time lag from the decline of investment growth and structural changes to the decline of industrial production growth and structural changes. Second, with the rapid growth of investment and industrial production, the supply and demand of energy and transportation has formed a large gap, and the increase of supply capacity requires a certain period. In this case, even if the growth rate of industrial production in the third quarter falls significantly, it can only narrow the gap between supply and demand, and it is difficult to achieve the basic balance of the total amount. Therefore, we cannot simply believe that macro-control is not in place and further tightening measures are needed
3. CPI changes are generally within an acceptable and controllable range
the current price rise has two significant characteristics: first, the rise in grain and food prices is the main factor, accounting for more than 89%, second, the tail raising factor is the main factor, accounting for more than 60%, and the new price rise factor only accounts for about 40%. Although the current year-on-year increase in CPI is still at a high level, and the possibility of further increase cannot be ruled out for a period of time in the future, it is different from the typical inflation in terms of its formation reasons, overall impact on the national economy and development trend, and cannot be used as the main basis for further macro tightening policies. In case of damage, the cable needs to be replaced
4. Maintain the basic stability of the regulation policy, fine tune it in time, and start to solve the deep-seated contradictions.
comprehensively analyze various factors. The overall strength of macro-control should not be greatly relaxed in the short term. The focus of the policy should be to appropriately fine tune it on the premise of maintaining the basic stability of the regulation policy, including moderately relaxing the working capital loans for private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises with good product sales, We should use more social regulation means to control investment projects and investment scale, strive to coordinate the contradiction between supply and demand of energy and transportation, and effectively do a good job in providing living subsidies to urban low-income groups. In the medium and long term, we should shift the focus of our work to solving the deep-seated contradictions in economic operation, so as to lay the foundation for long-term sustainable and stable development
cpi rose by about 4% throughout the year, and there was no risk of overall inflation.
1. In the first half of the year, the CPI year-on-year index continued to rise, and the month on month increase fell significantly after May.
in the first half of 2004, except in February, the CPI year-on-year increase increased month by month, with year-on-year increases of 3.2%, 2.1%, 3.0%, 3.8%, 4.4% and 5% respectively, showing an obvious V-shaped pattern, becoming the only ceramic aluminum new material supplier in the world one by one; The ceramic aluminum steering knuckle experimental product cooperated with Jixiang automobile has completed the road test of the whole vehicle; The dynamic trend of developing floor support beams and engine blades in cooperation with COMAC. It rose 3.6% year-on-year, the highest increase since 1997. The month on month growth showed a dynamic trend, which fell significantly after May. The month on month growth rates in May and June were -0.1% and -0.7% respectively, indicating that various national control measures have appeared in terms of CPI changes
2. The increase of consumer prices of rural residents exceeded that of cities. From January to June, urban CPI rose by 3.0%, rural CPI rose by 4.6%, and rural CPI prices were 1.6 percentage points higher than urban CPI prices. The difference between urban and rural consumption structure and the lagging development of rural market are the main reasons for the higher rise of rural residents' consumption prices than cities
3. The rise in grain and food prices is the main reason for the rise in CPI, which is greatly affected by the tail raising factor. In
month, food prices continued to rise year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 9.5% in the first half of the year, affecting CPI growth of about 3.19 percentage points; The rise of main service prices has a certain impact on CPI changes, accounting for about 0.41 percentage points; The price of industrial consumer goods still showed a downward trend (the decline was smaller than the same period last year), indicating that the transmission of the rise in the price of energy raw materials to downstream products was not obvious
in the first half of the year, among the cumulative CPI rise of 3.6%, the tail raising factor of last year's price accounted for about 60%, affecting the CPI rise of about 2.1 percentage points, and the new price rise factor this year accounted for 40%, affecting the CPI rise of about 1.5 percentage points
4. The year-on-year increase in CPI in the second half of the year will converge month by month, and the annual increase is expected to be about 4%
the annual business volume of China's express delivery has jumped to the first in the world
as the harvest of summer grain is a foregone conclusion and the harvest of autumn grain is basically in sight, it is expected that the grain output in the second half of the year will achieve the expected increase in production, reaching about 910billion Jin, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be alleviated. In addition, the use of inventory and the increase of some imports and other adjustment measures, The gap between supply and demand is expected to be basically filled, which will help stabilize grain prices; Due to the implementation of macro-control policies, the price of industrial consumer goods is still unlikely to rise in the second half of the year; Service prices will not rise too much; The impact of price hike will gradually decrease after August, and the year-on-year increase of CPI will converge month by month. The annual increase is expected to be about 4%. Excluding the impact of price inflation, the new price increase factor for the whole year is about 2%. Within the affordable range of residents, it basically adapts to the economic growth situation, and there is no obvious risk of overall inflation
5. The basic orientation of macro policies in the second half of the year should aim at maintaining the basic stability of the overall level of CPI and preventing the sharp rise or fall of prices
the policy focus should be to continue to implement the macro-control measures that have been introduced to prevent the rebound of overheating economy; We will continue to implement various support policies for agriculture and strive to ensure a bumper harvest of autumn crops in major grain producing areas. Implement the funds for grain purchase, rectify the order of grain circulation, and prevent large rises or falls in the price of autumn grain after it is listed; Effectively control the pace and intensity of local governments' price adjustment of service prices, strengthen the supervision and management of service prices, and strengthen the rectification and standardization of market order; We should control the excessive rise of rural prices in various ways. Systematically consider and solve the impact of price increases on urban low-income groups
6. Deeply analyze some problems and accurately judge the economic situation. First, we should pay attention to the analysis and research of China's core consumer price index, so as to more truly analyze the comparative relationship between total demand and total supply in economic development. Second, we should pay attention to the research on the relationship between China's current economic growth and the change of CPI index, which is not only meaningful for the analysis of the change of the current general level of CPI, but also practical for the correct analysis of China's economic situation and the improvement of the level of macro-control in the long run. Third, we should pay attention to the research on the relationship between CPI rise and urban low-income groups. Fourth, we should re-examine the impact and limitations of price inflation in CPI statistics. Fifth, we should comprehensively observe various economic indicators and accurately predict the macroeconomic situation
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